BMF CP104: Climate change-Induced Heat Bouts, Perception, Concern, and Heat Tolerance Among Older Adults

35


Rufous Sibia

July 24, 2025

“As time passes, news about the now hotter Earth buzzes through the bird village. Those kingfishers residing along the banks of the Red River often report drying riverbeds and skinny fish. As Kingfisher casts his gaze upon the events that have unfolded, he can’t help but feel a sense of unease creeping up within him.”

—In “GHG Emissions”, Wild Wise Weird (2024)

1. Project description

1.1. Main objectives

The current study is conducted to examine the following research questions:

  • How are the older adults’ perceived impacts of climate change on the increasing frequency of heat bouts, associated with their level of perceived heat tolerance when being at home?
  • How are the older adults’ perceived impacts of climate change on the increasing frequency of heat bouts, associated with their level of perceived heat tolerance when being outside?
  • Is the relationship between older adults’ perceived impacts of climate change on the increasing frequency of heat bouts and their level of perceived heat tolerance when being at home, conditional on the level of concerns regarding climate change?
  • Is the relationship between older adults’ perceived impacts of climate change on the increasing frequency of heat bouts and their level of perceived heat tolerance when being at home, conditional on the perception of climate change’s negative impacts on health?
  • Is the relationship between older adults’ perceived impacts of climate change on the increasing frequency of heat bouts and their level of perceived heat tolerance when being outside, conditional on the level of concerns regarding climate change?
  • Is the relationship between older adults’ perceived impacts of climate change on the increasing frequency of heat bouts and their level of perceived heat tolerance when being outside, conditional on the perception of climate change’s negative impacts on health?

Findings from this study are expected to contribute to promoting the eco-surplus culture and sustainable development [1].

1.2. Materials

The Granular Interaction Thinking Theory (GITT) will be employed for the conceptual development of this study, while the Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics will be utilized for statistical analysis [2,3]. The dataset comprises responses from 1050 and 1061 older adults (aged 65 and over) in Warsaw and Madrid, respectively [4]. Statistical analyses will be conducted using the bayesvl R package, which utilizes the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimation [5]. For the sake of research transparency and reducing research and reproducibility costs, we have stored all data and computer code on Zenodo: .
https://zenodo.org/records/16399761.

1.3. Main findings

The preliminary analysis indicates that the perceived impact of climate change on the frequency of heat bouts has a varying effect on older adults’ heat tolerance when outside, depending on the level of concerns regarding climate change (see Figure 1).



Figure 1: The estimated outside temperature limit

2. Collaboration procedure

Portal users should follow these steps to register to participate in this research project:

  1. Create an account on the website (preferably using an institutional email).
  2. Comment your name, affiliation, and your desired role in the project below this post.
  3. Patiently wait for the formal agreement on the project from the AISDL mentor.

If you have further inquiries, please contact us at aisdl_team@mindsponge.info

If you have been invited to join the project by an AISDL member, you are still encouraged to follow the above formal steps.

All the resources for conducting and writing the research manuscript will be distributed upon project participation.

AISDL mentor for this project: Minh-Hoang Nguyen.

AISDL members who have joined this project: Quan-Hoang Vuong, Viet-Phuong La.

The research project strictly adheres to scientific integrity standards, including authorship rights and obligations, without incurring an economic burden at participants’ expenses.

References

[1] Vuong QH. (2021). The semiconducting principle of monetary and environmental values exchange. Economics and Business Letters, 10(3), 284-290. https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/15872

[2] Vuong QH, Nguyen MH. (2024). Better economics for the Earth: A lesson from quantum and information theories. https://books.google.com/books?id=I50TEQAAQBAJ

[3] Vuong QH, Nguyen MH, La VP. (2022). The mindsponge and BMF analytics for innovative thinking in social sciences and humanities. Walter de Gruyter GmbH. https://www.amazon.com/dp/8367405102/

[4] Jancewicz B, Wrotek M. (2024). A thermosurvey dataset: Older adults’ experiences and adaptation to urban heat and climate change. Scientific Data, 11, 677. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-024-03509-4

[5] Vuong QH, La VP. (2025). Package ‘bayesvl’ version 1.0.0. https://books.google.com/books/about?id=znleEQAAQBAJ

[6] Vuong QH. (2024). Wild Wise Weird. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BG2NNHY6



tags:   perceived heat tolerance